Weekly Market Update – week commencing 25 August 2025
The outlook has improved for southern crops, cattle values are holding firm on stronger export signals, and wool opened higher after the winter recess. Here is what moved this week and what it means for QLD and NT producers.
Weather
Multiple fronts delivered 25–50 mm across the WA cropping belt and are forecast to bring crop-saving rain to SA, VIC and the NSW Riverina in coming days. Central and northern NSW and southern QLD also received 25–50 mm.
Seasonal signals continue to strengthen for a wet spring in southern Australia. The Indian Ocean Dipole has been negative for four consecutive weeks, with the latest weekly value at -0.91 on 17 August. If it slips below -0.94 and holds, it would be the strongest negative IOD since October 2010, which aligns with heightened spring rainfall potential.
Australian Dollar
The A$ lifted to just under 65 USc on broad US dollar weakness after Jackson Hole remarks increased the probability of US rate cuts.
Livestock
Cattle prices consolidated at recent highs. Processors note margin pressure, yet the export backdrop is improving. US domestic beef values stepped higher and exporters are negotiating fresh contracts on the basis that Brazilian lean beef is excluded from the US market. The US needs imported lean as slaughter and production fall, with the US choice cut-out at US$406/cwt versus US$315/cwt a year ago.
Sheepmeat values have steadied at elevated levels: heavy lambs around $11.50/kg cw, trade $11/kg cw, light and restocker $9.50–10/kg cw. New season lamb supply is beginning to lift and may cap further gains while some plants remain on reduced kills.
Grain
Internationally there is little fresh support. Early demand for US corn and wheat is solid and China is sniffing at US beans, but big crop ideas dominate. The US Pro Farmer tour points to record corn production.
Locally, prices are unchanged to slightly softer. Any flood-related logistics issues in northern NSW are a sell-the-rally opportunity for holders of old crop. The larger potential impact is the prospect of crop-saving rain across SA, VIC and the Riverina, which could buy two to three weeks of growth before heat arrives and ease southern feed demand.
Indicative values: Wheat $330/t Downs, $360–365/t southern feed markets. Barley remains at a $15–20/t discount.
Wool
Auctions resumed after the three-week recess with a larger than usual 40,000+ bale offering and strong exporter participation. Chinese and Indian orders were prominent. WA led gains and lifted the indicator 8 c to 1247 c/kg.
Sugar
Prices have stabilised and are expected to firm into year end, potentially 5 percent higher to above 17 USc/lb, as Brazil’s output outlook is trimmed from earlier expectations.
What this means for QLD and NT landholders
Cattle: Firm US demand and prospective shifts in US import mix are supportive. Review paddock-direct grid opportunities for heavy cattle and align turnoff with processor space as margins recalibrate.
Sheep: Elevated lamb grids are holding, but rising new season supply could soften values. If finishing capacity is limited, consider forward sales or earlier store turnoff.
Grains: For mixed operators, unchanged feed grain at southern buyers plus possible rain-driven pasture growth improves feeding economics. For growers, keep forward selling disciplined until spring rain risk is clearer.
Wool: Re-opening strength rewards well-prepared clips. Engage with brokers early to target active buyer lanes.
Speak with your local Elders team to fine-tune livestock marketing, manage grain position sizing, or plan spring operations.
For more information click here to visit the Elders Market Insight webpage https://elders.com.au/for-farmers/market-insights/