Spring has tightened across much of the south, livestock prices have eased as numbers lift, wool has posted another strong week, and QLD grain harvest is moving with barley quickly filling prompt demand. Here is the wrap, plus the practical take for Queensland and the Northern Territory.
Weather
Moderate falls were recorded across parts of the WA eastern wheatbelt and pockets of the SA and VIC cropping belts. The broader picture is still challenging: most of SA, VIC and the NSW Riverina are 75–300 mm behind through the southern wet season. That deficit will weigh on crop yields and pasture growth, with many producers in those districts likely feeding for a third consecutive year. Heat is building in the north, with QLD and northern NSW facing a very hot week and QLD nudging 40 degrees.
Australian dollar
The A$ is holding near the top of its recent range around 66 USc, supported by the view that Australia will keep rates on hold while the US heads toward further cuts before year end.
Livestock
Cattle
Prices were moderately easier, down about 3–4 percent, as QLD throughput increased and US beef eased from recent highs. Given the seasonal lift in slaughter and the softer US tone, this trend likely persists into year end. Restocker confidence has faded in southern regions as the season tightens and producers face another failed spring, pushing more stock into the market.
Sheepmeat
Lamb has found a level as new season numbers hit the lanes. Market tone is now anchored around $10/kg cw for light and Merino lambs and about $11.50/kg cw for export and trade weights. Notably, restocker interest re-emerged last week despite the dry, with grain-finishing the likely destination. Mutton remains firm around $7.80/kg cw.
Grains
Global values remain under pressure from the same drivers: large crops across key exporters and only steady demand that is lifting stock estimates. The US is harvesting big corn and soybean crops, while winter wheat sowing is advancing. Weather risk exists in parts of south-east Ukraine and southern Russia, but not enough yet to change the market tone.
Locally, southern traded volume has thinned to a trickle as earlier crops run out of time for yield-saving rain. In the north, barley harvest is gathering pace and prompt homes are filling quickly as the new crop year ticks over. The northern prompt wheat market is tight for the next fortnight. Many growers have cleaned out old crop on-farm, and meaningful new wheat flow looks two weeks away. That creates a brief pricing window where prompt wheat can fetch a premium of around $25/t before new harvest volumes satisfy nearby demand.
Indicatively, wheat is about $300/t ex-farm and barley about $280/t ex-farm in northern zones, which is not compelling for most growers. Pulse values have roughly halved year on year. Canola is likely to be sold off the header around $780/t for non-GM and $700/t for GM to meet cash flow needs, with other grains sold according to individual cash positions. Expect some harvest-time price pressure as supply builds.
Wool
Another strong selling week saw gains of roughly +100 c/kg, pushing the indicator to 1,565 c/kg. Next week’s larger catalogue near 41,000 bales will be a meaningful test of the higher levels. Buyer depth and the mix of finer Merino and well-prepared crossbred lines will be worth watching.
Sugar
Sugar prices firmed on reports that sugar content in Brazil’s Centre-South crush has fallen, implying lower crystal sugar output and a shift in the sugar–ethanol balance.
US farm support on the rise
The US is preparing further support for its farm sector as Chinese retaliatory tariffs suppress US soybean exports. China has actively diversified supply toward South America since earlier trade disputes, and the US is struggling to compete against low-cost Black Sea and South American origins. Biofuel mandates have historically absorbed surplus, but future policy direction is unclear. While additional aid can cushion incomes, it does not resolve structural scale and cost challenges in the US sector, and the budgetary appetite for ongoing subsidies will be tested.
What it means for QLD and NT producers
Slaughter cattle prices are likely to drift a little lower into year end as QLD numbers stay elevated and the US market cools, so paddock-direct selling and processor space management matter for heavy cows and steers. With southern restocker demand softening, selective value is appearing in lighter northern cattle if you have feed or irrigation—particularly where harvest residues and cheaper feedgrains can be leveraged. In sheep, stable grids around $10–$11.50/kg cw and firm mutton offer solid margin opportunities for those able to grain-finish or secure short keep. In grains, use the short northern prompt wheat window to your advantage where logistics allow, and plan for staged selling as harvest widens and basis compresses. Wool sellers should consider meeting the market in coming sales while buyer depth is evident, prioritising well-prepared clips to capture current premiums.
You can rely on Elders for market timing, forward sales and seasonal strategy. Speak with your local Elders agent today.