Another week of mixed blessings across Australian agriculture. Southern rain helped parts of Victoria and South Australia, cattle stayed buoyant on strong US demand, wool lifted again, and grains remained under pressure as global production swells. Here is the wrap, the data behind the headlines, and what it means for producers in Queensland and the Northern Territory.
Weather
Victoria: 25–50 mm for most districts, with up to 100 mm through the south-west, central and north-east. Many farms reported valuable runoff that topped up on-farm storages.
South Australia: 5–25 mm in a patchy spread. Best totals on the Fleurieu and in the south-east, while northern cropping zones largely missed out.
New South Wales: 25–100 mm in the eastern Riverina, otherwise 5–25 mm across the wider Riverina and south-west.
Tasmania: most districts exceeded 50 mm.
Western Australia: another 25–50 mm through the inner wheatbelt, lighter further east.
What is next
Guidance points to another system for WA and 15–25 mm across south-east SA and much of VIC. Northern SA and the VIC Mallee only look good for 5–10 mm, so heat risk into spring remains a watchpoint there.
Australian dollar
The dollar firmed to 65.4 USc after US inflation printed in line with expectations, lifting the odds of another US rate cut. A steadier currency is assisting export planning and helping offset weaker commodity prices in some categories.
Livestock
Cattle
Local grids remain well supported, driven by another leg higher in US manufacturing beef values. The US is consuming more beef despite higher retail prices, while domestic production is falling. Imported supply is tight. Brazilian lean beef is less competitive under higher tariffs and Canadian and Mexican flows are lower, with screw-worm halting Mexican feeder steer exports since late 2024. The demand picture continues to favour Australian lean into the US blend.
Takeaways
- Slaughter categories remain the clearest beneficiary of US demand.
- Space management matters. Some processors report tighter margins but are still paying for suitable heavy stock.
- Restocker money is holding where seasonal confidence has improved, and could accelerate if forecast rain verifies in southern districts.
Sheepmeat
Prices held firm as new season lamb numbers finally nudged higher. Over the month values are back 3–10 percent from the peak, with mutton feeling the greatest pressure as price-sensitive export markets push back. Processors remain selective while waiting for volumes to build.
Grains
There is no clean catalyst yet for a turnaround. Northern Hemisphere harvests are large and Argentina and Australia both look better on recent rain. International values sit near multi-year lows and local bids continue to reference that reality.
Indicative spot values
- Downs wheat: $330/t
- Downs barley: $310/t
- Melbourne and Murray Bridge feed wheat: $360/t
- Southern feed barley: $345/t
Rain has likely locked in at least average outcomes for parts of south-east SA and much of southern and central VIC, along with sections of the NSW Riverina. Crops in northern SA, the northern Wimmera and Mallee, south-west NSW and much of the Riverina are still finely balanced and vulnerable to a hot spring.
Wool
Confidence returned to auction rooms. Exporters and direct mill buyers lifted returns 10–20 c/kg across most types, pushing the EMI up 14 c to 1247 c/kg, the highest level since mid-2023. Sentiment is the best it has been in years, with stronger bidding for well-prepared lines.
Sugar
Prices were steady. The International Sugar Organization now expects the 2025–26 deficit to shrink sharply as production rises, taking the market closer to balance. Any weather-driven supply hiccup in Brazil would quickly change that calculus, so keep an eye on Centre-South updates.
Big crops keep pressure on grain prices
Global grain output is projected to rise 3.4 percent in 2025–26, led by a 10 percent lift in US corn and rebounds in Europe, South America and China. Large crops usually cap prices until a credible production threat emerges in a major exporter. With US corn about to be harvested, final yields will be crucial. Pre-harvest estimates are often revised lower, so watch how the first cuts come off over the next few weeks.
What it means for QLD and NT producers
Cattle: The US market is doing the heavy lifting. Maintain dialogue on paddock direct opportunities for heavy cows and steers. If you are backgrounding, keep an eye on US lean indicators and processor space as guides for timing.
Sheep: Values are still attractive but sensitive to growing new season supply. If finishing capacity is limited, supply programs or forward options can help lock in returns.
Grains: Mixed operators benefit from cheaper feed. For growers, be disciplined on forward selling while yield risk remains and basis is flat. Logistics bumps from wet weather are sell-the-rally moments for old crop.
Wool: The tone has improved. Presentation and testing will be rewarded, and specialty types should continue to attract stronger competition.
If you would like a region-specific plan for livestock turnoff, grain marketing or spring risk management, contact your local Elders team.