Elders Insights – Weekly Market Summary

Weekly Market Update – Weather Whiplash, Winter Supply Tightens, and Grain Pressured by Harvest
Here’s your agriculture overview for the week commencing 4th August 2025 — and what it means for producers in Queensland and the Northern Territory.

Weather Overview
Heavy falls of 15–100 mm drenched much of the WA wheatbelt, with lower-lying canola now showing signs of waterlogging. Rain tapered eastward, reaching parts of SA’s cropping belt and south-west VIC (up to 20 mm). In NSW the northern tablelands endured rain, snow and flooding east of the ranges, disrupting livestock movements and farm access.

Australian Dollar
The A$ closed just below 65 USc, as markets priced in a likely RBA rate cut while the US Fed held steady. A softer A$ will help underpin export returns if sustained.

Livestock Markets
Cattle values firmed across the board, led by cows and restocker grades. Southern processors are now short of winter supply, dropping shifts and competing in QLD saleyards — driving local grids higher despite ample northern numbers. Imported lean beef prices in the US posted another rise as Brazilian offers become prohibitive under new tariffs, bolstering demand for Australian product.

Sheep and lamb prices continued to climb as supply tightens. New-season lambs are running 4–6 weeks late and lighter than usual. One SA plant has laid off a full shift, underscoring the tightened supply chain as processors recalibrate for lean winter numbers.

Grain Markets
International grain values hit two-month lows, weighed down by advancing northern hemisphere harvests and robust US corn and soybean yields. Only early Black Sea crop setbacks have provided fleeting support.

Domestically, improved southern seasonal prospects and expectations of spring pasture growth have dampened feedgrain demand. Prices eased $3–5/t, with northern wheat back to $330/t and southern delivered values slipping under $360/t. The barley discount narrowed to below $10/t, reflecting stronger export and domestic usage reducing carryover.

Wool
Australian wool auctions are in a scheduled three-week recess, set to resume the week of 18th August. Market direction remains in abeyance until sales recommence.

Sugar
Sugar prices eased as Brazil’s centre-south production jumped 15% in the first half of July year-on-year, reinforcing expectations of a growing global surplus.

What This Means for QLD & NT Producers

Cattle: Southern processor competition is lifting northern grid prices, so now is the time to assess forward selling or paddock-direct opportunities.
Sheep: Tight winter supply underpins strong lamb and mutton values — prime time for light-weight turnoff or feedlot strategies.
Grain: Growers should monitor rain forecasts closely; improved southern moisture may delay spring selling, but strong yields loom in the north.
Wool & Sugar: Plan for renewed wool market activity mid-August, while sugar growers should track Brazilian output for global price influences.
Contact your local Elders agent for tailored advice on marketing strategies, forward contracts and seasonal planning.

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